Poll: Trump Loses More Ground

Thursday, October 17, 2024

In the presidential contest, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by five points among likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. The race gets closer, however, among registered voters nationally. Here, three points separate the two candidates.

Posted by reinheitsgebot at 04:33 PM | 92 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

We can just beat trump at the box (vote early, in person volunteer to canvas including by phone and talk friends into voting for harris)

#1 | Posted by Tor at 2024-10-16 01:58 PM

...we also need to be sure trump supporters understand on every level he really did loose the election and they need to go back to having a trump free life.

The public polls are pure trash and even the liberals know that. They are meant to FORM public opinion rather than simply report on it. Internal polls show Kamala sinking quickly which is why she is on her disastrous press tour now and why the bettings odds have her getting crushed (betting odds are smart money from poll insiders).

It should become standard practice for all polls to be forced to state their error from their prior projection to actual results as a disclaimer on all their publications.

For instance, on this article, Marist would be forced to state *2020 error was D+5*

Similarly, garbage polls like Quinnipiac would need to state *2020 error was D+9*

With this actual discloser, they could no longer form opinion as their polls would be rightly rejected due to highly biased nature of their polling methodology.

Finally, in applying their error from 2020, we would then logically conclude that the true numbers are more like a tie at the national level which means Trump wins the EC easily. Dems need to win popular vote by 3-4% to win the EC.

#4 | Posted by: deadman | Flag: Serious level

It's good that Harris leading in the popular vote but, as we all know, that isn't always enough. Where does she stand in the electoral vote?

The only ground that matters are the swing states.

And republicans got that covered.

"The only ground that matters are the swing states. And republicans got that covered." -

#7 | Posted by ClownShack

I call BS:

Close fight in the trenches: A look at the ground game in the presidential race: POLL

How nuch would Democrats need to win by to remove the most corrupt members of the Supreme Court?

Good. Burn in hell Trump. Lose and go away.

FACT: Once the winner has 3% or more of the total popular vote, it is mathematically impossible for the loser to get 270 (or more) Electoral Votes.

It looks like you screwed this thread up trying to be cute.

I vote yes to ban Hans.

Thanks for the update Hans, lol. Rogers, something wrong on your end? Lol

You're most welcome! :-)

Uh Oh.........

Somteng Wong at the Drudge Retort.

Wow, Hans is annoying as ----.

"Wow, Hans is annoying as ----.
#1037 | Posted by Bluewaffles"

Do you honestly think something went wrong on the server side to repost 1000+ times by Hans or was he sitting in his basement continuously hitting the publish comment button with ever growing incel rage until it finally posted 1000+ times? My bet is that someone's mom didn't bring the pizza rolls in time and Hans was rage hitting submit while likely screaming the n-word at the top of his lungs. Thankfully, he likely resides in a windowless basement so no one was exposed to his racial abuse.

FACT: Once the winner has a 3% or more advantage in the total popular vote (over the loser's total popular vote total), it is mathematically impossible for the loser to get 270 (or more) Electoral Votes.
#1-1031 !!!!! | Posted by Hans

I might be misunderstanding, but I don't think that's correct Hans.

For instance, if 20 million people vote in Florida for Kamala, and only one person votes in each of the remaining states + DC for Trump, Kamala would have close to 100% of the popular vote. But Trump would still become president (508 electoral votes to 30) even though he only received slightly above 0% of the popular vote.

#19 | Posted by censored at 2024-10-17 08:51 PM | Reply | Flag: Interesting understanding

#18 | Posted by: deadman | Flag: Serious level

#18 | Posted by: deadman | Flag: Serious level

Interestingly enough, this is post #18.

"Any significantly advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

"I might be misunderstanding, but I don't think that's correct Hans.
#19 | Posted by censored"

That is classic Hans. Yes, he is totally wrong as usual - but boy is he confident in his wrongness.

First there was...

Do you honestly think something went wrong on the server side to repost 1000+ times by Hans or was he sitting in his basement continuously hitting the publish comment button with ever growing incel rage until it finally posted 1000+ times? My bet is that someone's mom didn't bring the pizza rolls in time and Hans was rage hitting submit while likely screaming the n-word at the top of his lungs. Thankfully, he likely resides in a windowless basement so no one was exposed to his racial abuse.

#18 | Posted by deadman at 2024-10-17 08:23 PM

... and then ...

#18 | Posted by: deadman | Flag: Serious level

Interestingly enough, this is post #18.

"Any significantly advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

#22 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-17 08:58 PM

This is amazingly easy.

"That is classic Hans."

#23 | Posted by deadman

Says the guy here a total of 7 days.

Which is exactly why deadman has earned his own, personal Serious level

Says the guy here a total of 7 days.

Longer than that. He's just another retread.

#26 | Posted by REDIAL

I suppose they are being no different than when niceville was booted and then joined and re-joined the Retort, weekly, sometimes daily, with a new moniker/email.

Our host immediately recognized him and threw him out, only to have him sneak back in, over and over and over. After a year of that, he finally gave up.

It is the same with these retreads. They're too much of a coward to admit that they been booted off of the Retort, so they have to come crawling back in under a new alias.

As if we wouldn't notice.

Like our host with niceville.

I see HTML Hans is back. What an irritation.

That said, I'm genuinely curious about your up 3% can't get 270 assertion. You usually source such. Maybe I missed it in the wall of HTML. Help me out.

so they have to come crawling back in under a new alias.

I'd guess that there are 4 or 5 actual people generating the endless string of sock puppets. Some smell like Rex, some smell like Sheeple.

"That said, I'm genuinely curious about your up 3% can't get 270 assertion." -

#28 | Posted by et_al

I am a long-time follower of Electoral-Vote.com, a site published by 2 academics: one in Los Angeles, the other one in the Netherlands. They guy in the Netherlands has published many IT books, and was the author of an early OS. I wouldn't be surprised if our host knows him.

I've search through their archives, as it was an article by them that presented that formula. That once a candidate's popular vote margin is 3% or greater, it is mathematically impossible for the loser of the popular vote margin to achieve the necessary 270+ Electoral College votes.

If I find that article, I'll post it as a thread here. But I wanted to get back to you on your question.

Oh, and as for my HTML skills: ~~--- you~~ Thank you for your kind compliment.

If I find that article, I'll post it as a thread here. But I wanted to get back to you on your question.

Thanks, ~~A*****e~~ Hans.

My gut tells me Harris will eke this out.

Having said that, over the past few weeks momentum has switched back to Trump. According to RCP aggregate polling, if the election were to be held tomorrow, Trump would win comfortably.

Had her lead from a few weeks ago plateaued I believe her team would have been content to keep her under wraps and run out the clock. Her recent media blitz hasn't moved the needle in her favor.

If Trump continues to gain momentum I really think she has only one card left to play and that is to as tactfully as possible throw Biden under the bus, specifically, his policies. "A new way forward" doesn't work when she says she can't think of anything she would have done differently than Biden.

My gut tells me Harris will eke this out.

Really? You think the US is going to elect a woman for president?

#33. Yep. Hillary Clinton came close. She didn't lose because she's a woman. She lost because she is an extremely unpopular politician whose campaign stupidly ignored a couple of key swing states.

Yep.

I don't see it.

I do. If you think it's a GOP misogyny thing, I point you back to 2008 and how (wrongly) enthusiastic the GOP voters were with Palin being selected for VP. And that was 16 years ago.

The same insinuation was made in 2008 with Obama and he ended up not only winning but was a 2-termer.

I get that you are Canadian and the culture there is different than in the US along with the differences in the structure of the 2 governments. That might cloud your viewpoint of American politics and culture a bit. But given your obvious interest in US politics and the frequency in which I've observed you post here - give us Americans a bit more credit.

I am a long-time follower of Electoral-Vote.com, a site published by 2 academics [...] I've search through their archives, as it was an article by them that presented that formula. That once a candidate's popular vote margin is 3% or greater, it is mathematically impossible for the loser of the popular vote margin to achieve the necessary 270+ Electoral College votes. If I find that article, I'll post it as a thread here. But I wanted to get back to you on your question.[...]
#30 | Posted by Hans

I'd be curious to see that article as well, since it seems to go against the very purpose of the electoral college, having a president elected by the states not the citizens, which would allow large states to run roughshod over the rights of small states.

Meanwhile: "How To Win The Presidency With 23 Percent Of The Popular Vote" www.npr.org

Wall-to-wall Trump ads covering all of DR! WTF? If this assininity continues, I will probably abandon DR as a lost cause.

I use an ad blocker... it helps especially these days

#37 | Posted by censored

Not buying that.

In one scenario of their hypothetical election, the winner "wins" California, Texas, New York and Florida.

In the other hypothetical, they have Vermont, DC and Rhode Island all voting for the same candidate as Wyoming, North (and South) Dakota and Alaska.

My statement assumes typical voting patterns for states, not impossible election scenarios that will not happen in our lifetime.

This is Earth 1, not Earth 2.

My statement assumes typical voting patterns for states, not impossible election scenarios that will not happen in our lifetime. This is Earth 1, not Earth 2.
#40 | Posted by Hans

Ah, gotcha! When you said "mathematically impossible" I took it at face value as being literally "impossible," not "extremely unlikely in our lifetime."

Funny but not haha how Democrat Senators like Casey PA, Sherrod Brown OH etc are frantically buying into Trump policies on trade immig.. They abstain from Kamala rallies.

www.msn.com

#41 | Posted by censored at 2024-10-18 08:16 PM | Reply | Flag: Your understanding

#42 | Posted by robson at 2024-10-18 08:45 PM | Reply | Flag: Thinks everyone is as stupid as he (robson) is

#45 | Posted by robson at 2024-10-18 08:53 PM | Reply | Flag: Thinks everyone is as stupid as he (robson) is

@#42 ... Funny but not haha how Democrat Senators like Casey PA, Sherrod Brown OH etc are frantically buying into Trump policies on trade immig. ...

immig?

I went to the link your AI bot provided, and saw nothing to substantiate what your AI bot said.

Just a bunch of useless links to Washington Examiner fluff.

What else yer got?

"What else yer got?"

#47 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 08:55 PM

They never have anything of substance.

Nothing.

@#48 ... They never have anything of substance. ...

I wouldn't say "never."

Usually, yes, absolutely.

But sometimes there is good info.

That aside...

I am wondering why the Russia-troll contingent of the current aliases seems to be so universally quiet this evening?

Is there an Internet issue in Russia?

Why would they all seem to go quiet at the same time?

"Funny but not haha how Democrat Senators like Casey PA, Sherrod Brown OH etc are frantically buying into Trump policies on trade immig.. They abstain from Kamala rallies."

I think that article is trying to read too much into that ad. Casey is trying to appeal to Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Here's the Casey ad (video at link):

Transcript
I'm a Republican and I'm a Democrat. Our marriage, pure bliss. But on politics, we just don't agree except for Bob Casey. He's independent. That's right. Casey's leading the effort to stop corporate greed, inflation and price gouging Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating. So, in this house, we agree it's Bob Casey who's doing right by Pennsylvania. I'm Bob Casey and I definitely approve this message.

host2.adimpact.com

Running against corporate greed, inflation and price gouging are issues Harris is running on. He appeared at a rally last week in Pittsburgh with Obama as Obama campaigned for both Casey and Harris:

Obama contrasts values of Harris, Trump at Pittsburgh rally

the 44th president, making his first campaign stop this fall in support of Harris, spoke of values and the contrast in presidential candidates after their different approaches to hurricane relief in the South. Trump at an event in Georgia accused Biden of ignoring the area, taking to social media to falsely accuse the administration of withholding and diverting funds from Republican areas.

"It's been one of the most disturbing things in this election season about Trump's rise in politics," he said. "How we have seemed to set aside the values that people like Dan stood for, (U.S. Sen.) Bob (Casey) stood for and that I was taught. Those used to be Democratic and Republican values. It used to be we would have arguments about tax policy or foreign policy, but we didn't have arguments about whether you should tell the truth or not. We didn't make excuses for people who violate basic norms for treating people fairly and with respect."

Obama spoke for about 45 minutes while U.S. Sen. Bob Casey sat behind him. Casey, running for a fourth term in the Senate, was one of the preceding speakers that also included quips by Gov. Josh Shapiro, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis and Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey.

www.ncnewsonline.com

"I am wondering why the Russia-troll contingent of the current aliases seems to be so universally quiet this evening?" -

#49 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 09:12 PM

Submitted for your approval ...

The Russia-troll contingent of the current aliases

JeffJ/Bellringer

BILLJOHNSON

Bluewaffles (NSFW)

boaz

commnotes

deadman

gracieamazed

lfthndthrds (NSFW)

oneironaut

robson

shrimptacodan

THEBULL (NSFW)

visitor_

fortfisher is NOT welcome on the Drudge Retort MAGAt Team *

* - Due to issues with his breath

@#51 ... Submitted for your approval ... ...

I disagree, somewhat.

The Visitor and Robson current aliases look to me to be AI bots, based upon my view of their replies.

If that opinion is correct... where they originate, I've not yet have a clue.

Is it Russia or is it a MAGA cult member who has discovered AI and just seems to be playing with AI here?

I've not a clue at this point.

@#50 ... Casey is trying to appeal to Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Here's the Casey ad (video at link): ...

Yup.

And, as an aside...

Ringing my doorbell...

So far, Democrats and Republicans are tied for the number of times I have told them to leave me alone when they ring my door bell.

And, don't get me started on the text messages....

At this point, my friend LampLighter, it doesn't matter to me if they're AI or just MAGA freaks.

They're all deserving of nothing more than ridicule and humiliation.

Nothing more.

And certainly not respect.

They've forfeited that right.

@#55 ... my friend LampLighter, ...

We ain't friends.

We may have similar opinions, but we ain't friends.

#56 | Posted by LampLighter

Merely an extension of #StrongerTogether.

You're welcome.

@#55 ... They're all deserving of nothing more than ridicule and humiliation. ...

I would not go that far.

I would say that their opinions should be countered with substantiated views.

And that is why I thought VP Harris answered Mr Braier's question so well..

drudge.com

...
Kamala Harris (18:29):

This is an election for president of the United States. It's not supposed to be easy.

Bret Baier (18:34):

I know, but it is-

Kamala Harris (18:37):

It is not supposed to be a cakewalk for anyone.

Bret Baier (18:42):

So are they misguided, the 50%?

Kamala Harris (18:42):

Listen, let-

Bret Baier (18:42):

Are they stupid? What is it?

Kamala Harris (18:42):

Oh, God. I would never say that about the American people. And in fact, if you listen to Donald Trump, if you watch any of his rallies, he's the one who tends to demean and belittle and diminish the American people. He's the one who talks about an enemy within, an enemy within, talking about the American people, suggesting he would turn the American military on the American people.
...

It is not about humiliating Americans. It is about serving Americans.

My gut tells me Harris will eke this out.

"""""""

Nope, it's not going to be close, Harris in a blue tsunami.
Stop paying attention to manipulated polling and mainstream corporate horserace media, that includes MSNBC.

#58 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-18 09:47 PM | Reply | Flag: for your understanding ...

Friends of the friendless, yes we are.
We are friends of the friendless, yes we are.

They don't write lyrics like that anymore.

"They don't write lyrics like that anymore." -

#61 | Posted by LegallyYourDead

Indeed!

Apparently, siloed opinions and individual considerations, leading to political cannibalism, are more important than being #StrongerTogether.

Especially in a public setting.

Noted.

@63 ... Apparently, siloed opinions and individual considerations, leading to political cannibalism, are more important than being #StrongerTogether. ...

Please provide more information for that view, aside from some odd cartoon.

thx.

@#65

So, your current alias has got no explanation.

Good to know.

(and, fwiw, earlier this evening I had wondered why the Russian troll farm seemed to be so quiet this evening. I think I may now know why ... A resurrected alias. Your current alias' thread, drudge.com , made me start to wonder about your current alias. A wolf in sheep's clothing?)

And you'll notice how I supported you in your comment, here.

Along with flagging your posts Newsworthy.

Apparently, that's not pure enough for you.

While for me, that's #StrongerTogether

My "current alias"?

WTF is that supposed to mean?

My "current alias"?

WTF is that supposed to mean?

Hans

Hans Meyer

Seniority: 23

Party: Democrat

Ideology: Liberal

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Joined 2005/06/16
Visited 2024/10/18

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